Bitcoin Update
Market Update Letter: Bitcoin's Surge Past $65,000
Date: September 27, 2024
Dear Valued Investors,
I hope this letter finds you well. Today, I am excited to share an update on Bitcoin, which has recently broken through significant technical barriers, signaling robust market momentum.
Current Uptrend Analysis
Bitcoin has displayed an impressive performance since bottoming at around 52,600 on 9/5. Since then, BTC has moved steadily higher breaking above the critical $65,000 mark, a level that is now considered support by traders and analysts alike. This breakout confirms a shift in market sentiment from cautiously optimistic to decisively bullish. The movement above this psychological threshold is not just a testament to Bitcoin's resilience but also to its growing acceptance and institutional interest.
The triangle pattern on the above BTC daily chart shows the breakout of the triangle and the crossing of the downward trend line at the same time around 60,300. Bitcoin tested this level and closed higher on 9/17. It has since confirmed that breakout by making new highs on eight out the last 10 days. If the 65,000 level holds over the weekend, we should see prices move to 68,300 sometime next week.
However, a note of caution is that there is significant overhead resistance from 68,300 all the way up to the ATH – all time high of 73,083.
A two-day close above 70,000 would confirm a breakout of the cup and handle pattern shown below. The measured move on this pattern breakout is to around 100,000.
Technical Pattern Breakout
Cup and Handle Pattern on the weekly chart: Observers on platforms like X have noted that Bitcoin's price action has formed a classic "cup and handle" pattern, a bullish continuation pattern that suggests further upward momentum. This pattern, if validated by continued price movement, could imply a significant increase, potentially targeting a 40% upside from the breakout point.
Volume and Liquidity: Increased trading volumes are indicating strong buying interest. This liquidity surge often accompanies significant price movements, as seen with the aggressive buying on Binance and passive selling on Coinbase, suggesting a market going through a major trend reversal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Technical indicators like RSI have shown positive long-term momentum for Bitcoin, with no overbought signals on the monthly chart. This suggests that while there might be short-term corrections, the overarching trend remains upward.
Market Sentiment
The sentiment captured from recent X posts reflects a mixture of excitement and strategic anticipation. Based on the trend lines currently, I would like to suggest that the current sentiment is positive and moving toward aggressively positive.
What to Expect
Given these developments, here is what we might anticipate for next week:
Immediate Targets: If Bitcoin maintains above $65,000, the next technical resistance barrier would be $68,300. After, this level comes the hugely important 70,000 level that has capped the Bitcoin price for the last six months, since March.
Long-term Trends: Should the upward trend continue, Bitcoin could test or surpass its all-time highs, potentially driven by continued institutional investment and further mainstream adoption.
Risks: However, it is crucial to remain vigilant. Cryptocurrencies are known for their volatility. A rejection at or near $65,000 could lead to a revisiting of lower support levels, potentially triggering stop-losses and leading to a sharper correction.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's breakout above $65,000 is more than just a price movement; it is a statement of Bitcoin's enduring value proposition in the financial ecosystem. While the path ahead could see turbulence, the technical and sentiment analysis suggests a strong bias towards continued price appreciation.
Thank you for reading this update.
Warm regards,
Shawn Loddy
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